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Skalica vs Artis — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Skalica
Skalica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Artis
Artis
Z. Medved 64', 32'
M. Lutonsky 65'
A. Cermak 52'
2/4/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Skalica55%
×Draw21%
Artis24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skalica
2.04
Artis
1.29

Skalica creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Skalica
2.33
Artis
1.70

allows per match

Skalica
0.89
Artis
1.75

finishing

Skalica+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skalica ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Skalica or draw
76%
Skalica or Artis
79%
Draw or Artis
45%

Winning margin

Skalica wins by 2+
32%
Artis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Skalica 1+ goals
87%
Skalica 2+ goals
60%
Skalica 3+ goals
33%
Artis 1+ goals
72%
Artis 2+ goals
37%
Artis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Skalica (draw refunded)
69%
Artis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skalica at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Artis away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skalica attack 2.33 + Artis defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Artis attack 1.70 + Skalica defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Skalica scores more
55%
level
21%
Artis scores more
24%

Skalica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Skalica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Z. Medved
47'
52'
A. Cermak
64'
Z. Medved
65'
M. Lutonsky
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skalica vs Artis

Skalica and Artis drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 4, 2023.

Goals: Z. Medved (32', 64'), A. Cermak (52'), M. Lutonsky (65').

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Skalica.