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Skála vs B68 II — 1. Deild 2019

Skála
Skála
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
B68 II
B68 II
6/24/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 14Undir Mýruhjalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skála84%
×Draw11%
B68 II6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skála
3.10
B68 II
0.70

Skála creates 343% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skála
2.98
B68 II
0.62

allows per match

Skála
0.78
B68 II
3.23

finishing

Skála+0.00on par
B68 II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála ↓

B68 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Skála or draw
94%
Skála or B68 II
89%
Draw or B68 II
16%

Winning margin

Skála wins by 2+
65%
B68 II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Skála 1+ goals
95%
Skála 2+ goals
81%
Skála 3+ goals
58%
B68 II 1+ goals
50%
B68 II 2+ goals
16%
B68 II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Skála (draw refunded)
94%
B68 II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála at home — creates 2.98, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

B68 II away — creates 0.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála attack 2.98 + B68 II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 3.10

B68 II attack 0.62 + Skála defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Skála scores more
84%
level
11%
B68 II scores more
6%

Skála at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Skála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Skála 4–1 B68 II

Skála beat B68 II 4-1 in 1. Deild on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Undir Mýruhjalla in Skáli, Eysturoy.