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B68 II vs Skála — 1. Deild 2019

B68 II
B68 II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Skála
Skála
5/4/20231. Deild1. Deild · Round 8Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B68 II11%
×Draw15%
Skála74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68 II
1.05
Skála
2.87

Skála creates 173% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

creates per match

B68 II
1.29
Skála
2.88

allows per match

B68 II
2.86
Skála
0.82

finishing

B68 II+0.00on par
Skála+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 II ↓

Skála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

B68 II or draw
26%
B68 II or Skála
85%
Draw or Skála
89%

Winning margin

B68 II wins by 2+
4%
Skála wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

B68 II 1+ goals
65%
B68 II 2+ goals
28%
B68 II 3+ goals
9%
Skála 1+ goals
94%
Skála 2+ goals
77%
Skála 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

B68 II (draw refunded)
13%
Skála (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Skála away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 II attack 1.29 + Skála defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Skála attack 2.88 + B68 II defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

B68 II scores more
11%
level
15%
Skála scores more
74%

Skála at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Skála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: B68 II 0–2 Skála

Skála beat B68 II 2-0 in 1. Deild on May 4, 2023.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.