Skála II 2–2 B36 II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Skála II

FT

2 – 2

B36 II

8/3/2019

1. Deild · Round 17Undir Mýruhjalla (Skáli, Eysturoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skála II45%

×Draw22%

B36 II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skála IIExpected goals in this matchB36 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.58

Skála II

1.90

B36 II

1.58

Skála II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 102 away

1.54

creates per match

1.54

1.62

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Skála II

1.54

B36 II

1.54

allows per match

Skála II

1.62

B36 II

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skála II+0.00on par

B36 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skála II ↓

B36 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Skála II or draw

68%

Skála II or B36 II

78%

Draw or B36 II

55%

Winning margin

Skála II wins by 2+

25%

B36 II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Skála II 1+ goals

85%

Skála II 2+ goals

56%

Skála II 3+ goals

29%

B36 II 1+ goals

79%

B36 II 2+ goals

47%

B36 II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Skála II (draw refunded)

58%

B36 II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skála II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

B36 II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.25 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skála II attack 1.54 + B36 II defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

B36 II attack 1.54 + Skála II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skála II scores more

45%

level

22%

B36 II scores more

32%

Skála II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Skála II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff