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B36 II vs Skála II — 1. Deild 2019

B36 II
B36 II
FT
0 – 4
Skála II
Skála II
4/20/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 6Gundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

B36 II47%
×Draw23%
Skála II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 II
1.85
Skála II
1.44

B36 II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 14 away

creates per match

B36 II
1.85
Skála II
1.21

allows per match

B36 II
1.68
Skála II
1.86

finishing

B36 II+0.00on par
Skála II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 II ↓

Skála II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

B36 II or draw
70%
B36 II or Skála II
77%
Draw or Skála II
53%

Winning margin

B36 II wins by 2+
26%
Skála II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

B36 II 1+ goals
84%
B36 II 2+ goals
55%
B36 II 3+ goals
28%
Skála II 1+ goals
76%
Skála II 2+ goals
42%
Skála II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

B36 II (draw refunded)
61%
Skála II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Skála II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 II attack 1.85 + Skála II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Skála II attack 1.21 + B36 II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

B36 II scores more
47%
level
23%
Skála II scores more
30%

B36 II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "B36 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B36 II vs Skála II

Skála II beat B36 II 4-0 in 1. Deild on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Gundadalur (Tórshavn, Streymoy).