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Skala 1911 Stryi vs Rukh Vynnyky II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
8/31/2024Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 4Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Skala 1911 Stryi42%
×Draw25%
Rukh Vynnyky II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.55
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.34

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

creates per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.97
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.18

allows per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.50
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.14

finishing

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skala 1911 Stryi ↓

Rukh Vynnyky II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Skala 1911 Stryi or draw
67%
Skala 1911 Stryi or Rukh Vynnyky II
75%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky II
58%

Winning margin

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
21%
Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
79%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
46%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
20%
Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
74%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
39%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
56%
Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skala 1911 Stryi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Rukh Vynnyky II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.97 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.18 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
42%
level
25%
Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
33%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skala 1911 Stryi vs Rukh Vynnyky II

Rukh Vynnyky II beat Skala 1911 Stryi 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sokil in Stryi.