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Rukh Vynnyky II vs Skala 1911 Stryi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
4/11/2025Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 13Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky II37%
×Draw25%
Skala 1911 Stryi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.43
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.59
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.51

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky II
1.36
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.27

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par
Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky II ↓

Skala 1911 Stryi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky II or draw
62%
Rukh Vynnyky II or Skala 1911 Stryi
75%
Draw or Skala 1911 Stryi
63%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
17%
Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
76%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
42%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
17%
Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
76%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
42%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
50%
Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Skala 1911 Stryi away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.59 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.51 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
37%
level
25%
Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
38%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Rukh Vynnyky II 1–2 Skala 1911 Stryi

Skala 1911 Stryi beat Rukh Vynnyky II 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha in Vynnyky.