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Skala 1911 Stryi vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nyva Vinnytsya
Nyva Vinnytsya
3/24/2024Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 20Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Skala 1911 Stryi45%
×Draw24%
Nyva Vinnytsya32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.71
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.41

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

creates per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.97
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.32

allows per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.50
Nyva Vinnytsya
1.46

finishing

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par
Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skala 1911 Stryi ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Skala 1911 Stryi or draw
68%
Skala 1911 Stryi or Nyva Vinnytsya
76%
Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya
55%

Winning margin

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
23%
Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
82%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
51%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
24%
Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals
76%
Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals
41%
Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
58%
Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skala 1911 Stryi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.97 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
45%
level
24%
Nyva Vinnytsya scores more
32%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skala 1911 Stryi vs Nyva Vinnytsya

Skala 1911 Stryi and Nyva Vinnytsya drew 0-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sokil in Stryi.