Skala 1911 Stryi 4–3 Kudrivka: Result & Stats

Skala 1911 Stryi

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Kudrivka

8/6/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 1Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skala 1911 Stryi42%

×Draw24%

Kudrivka34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skala 1911 StryiExpected goals in this matchKudrivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.41

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.60

Kudrivka

1.41

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

1.97

creates per match

1.31

1.50

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.97

Kudrivka

1.31

allows per match

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.50

Kudrivka

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par

Kudrivka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skala 1911 Stryi ↓

Kudrivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Skala 1911 Stryi or draw

66%

Skala 1911 Stryi or Kudrivka

76%

Draw or Kudrivka

58%

Winning margin

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+

21%

Kudrivka wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals

80%

Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals

47%

Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals

22%

Kudrivka 1+ goals

76%

Kudrivka 2+ goals

41%

Kudrivka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)

55%

Kudrivka (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skala 1911 Stryi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Kudrivka away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.97 + Kudrivka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kudrivka attack 1.31 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more

42%

level

24%

Kudrivka scores more

34%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff