Kudrivka 1–2 Skala 1911 Stryi: Result & Stats

Kudrivka

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Skala 1911 Stryi

11/5/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 16Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kudrivka36%

×Draw24%

Skala 1911 Stryi40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KudrivkaExpected goals in this matchSkala 1911 Stryi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.61

Kudrivka

1.53

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

1.79

creates per match

1.51

1.71

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Kudrivka

1.79

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.51

allows per match

Kudrivka

1.71

Skala 1911 Stryi

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kudrivka+0.00on par

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kudrivka ↓

Skala 1911 Stryi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kudrivka or draw

60%

Kudrivka or Skala 1911 Stryi

76%

Draw or Skala 1911 Stryi

64%

Winning margin

Kudrivka wins by 2+

17%

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kudrivka 1+ goals

78%

Kudrivka 2+ goals

45%

Kudrivka 3+ goals

20%

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals

80%

Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals

48%

Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kudrivka (draw refunded)

48%

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kudrivka at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

Skala 1911 Stryi away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kudrivka attack 1.79 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.53

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.51 + Kudrivka defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kudrivka scores more

36%

level

24%

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more

40%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff