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Skala 1911 Stryi vs Karpaty II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty II
Karpaty II
9/27/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 3Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skala 1911 Stryi39%
×Draw24%
Karpaty II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.60
Karpaty II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.97
Karpaty II
1.62

allows per match

Skala 1911 Stryi
1.50
Karpaty II
1.23

finishing

Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par
Karpaty II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skala 1911 Stryi ↓

Karpaty II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Skala 1911 Stryi or draw
63%
Skala 1911 Stryi or Karpaty II
76%
Draw or Karpaty II
61%

Winning margin

Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
19%
Karpaty II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
80%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
47%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
22%
Karpaty II 1+ goals
79%
Karpaty II 2+ goals
46%
Karpaty II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
51%
Karpaty II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skala 1911 Stryi at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Karpaty II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.97 + Karpaty II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Karpaty II attack 1.62 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
39%
level
24%
Karpaty II scores more
37%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skala 1911 Stryi vs Karpaty II

Karpaty II beat Skala 1911 Stryi 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokil in Stryi.