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Karpaty II vs Skala 1911 Stryi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Karpaty II
Karpaty II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Skala 1911 Stryi
Skala 1911 Stryi
11/19/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 18Stadion LNAU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karpaty II27%
×Draw24%
Skala 1911 Stryi48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty II
1.18
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.64

Skala 1911 Stryi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 37 away

creates per match

Karpaty II
1.08
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.51

allows per match

Karpaty II
1.77
Skala 1911 Stryi
1.27

finishing

Karpaty II+0.00on par
Skala 1911 Stryi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty II ↓

Skala 1911 Stryi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Karpaty II or draw
52%
Karpaty II or Skala 1911 Stryi
76%
Draw or Skala 1911 Stryi
73%

Winning margin

Karpaty II wins by 2+
11%
Skala 1911 Stryi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Karpaty II 1+ goals
69%
Karpaty II 2+ goals
33%
Karpaty II 3+ goals
12%
Skala 1911 Stryi 1+ goals
81%
Skala 1911 Stryi 2+ goals
49%
Skala 1911 Stryi 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Karpaty II (draw refunded)
36%
Skala 1911 Stryi (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Skala 1911 Stryi away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty II attack 1.08 + Skala 1911 Stryi defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Skala 1911 Stryi attack 1.51 + Karpaty II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karpaty II scores more
27%
level
24%
Skala 1911 Stryi scores more
48%

Skala 1911 Stryi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Skala 1911 Stryi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karpaty II vs Skala 1911 Stryi

Karpaty II beat Skala 1911 Stryi 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion LNAU in Dubliany.