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SKA Rostov vs Sevastopol — Second League - Group 1 2020

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sevastopol
Sevastopol
10/14/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

SKA Rostov41%
×Draw26%
Sevastopol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
1.43
Sevastopol
1.24

SKA Rostov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.67
Sevastopol
1.60

allows per match

SKA Rostov
0.88
Sevastopol
1.19

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Sevastopol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Sevastopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
67%
SKA Rostov or Sevastopol
74%
Draw or Sevastopol
59%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
20%
Sevastopol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
76%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
42%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
17%
Sevastopol 1+ goals
71%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
35%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
56%
Sevastopol (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Sevastopol away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Sevastopol defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sevastopol attack 1.60 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
41%
level
26%
Sevastopol scores more
33%

SKA Rostov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: SKA Rostov 0–1 Sevastopol

Sevastopol beat SKA Rostov 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.