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Sevastopol vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sevastopol
Sevastopol
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
7/16/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1SKS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sevastopol38%
×Draw27%
SKA Rostov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevastopol
1.28
SKA Rostov
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sevastopol
1.37
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Sevastopol
0.61
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw
65%
Sevastopol or SKA Rostov
73%
Draw or SKA Rostov
62%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+
17%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals
72%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
37%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
70%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
34%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)
53%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sevastopol scores more
38%
level
27%
SKA Rostov scores more
35%

Sevastopol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevastopol vs SKA Rostov

Sevastopol beat SKA Rostov 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at SKS Arena in Sevastopol.