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SKA Rostov vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
9/23/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

SKA Rostov44%
×Draw27%
Rubin Yalta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
1.35
Rubin Yalta
1.02

SKA Rostov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 48 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.67
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

SKA Rostov
0.88
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
72%
SKA Rostov or Rubin Yalta
73%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
56%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
21%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
74%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
39%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
15%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
64%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
27%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
61%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
44%
level
27%
Rubin Yalta scores more
28%

SKA Rostov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Rostov vs Rubin Yalta

Rubin Yalta beat SKA Rostov 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.