Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rubin Yalta vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
8/13/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rubin Yalta36%
×Draw26%
SKA Rostov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Yalta
1.33
SKA Rostov
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rubin Yalta
1.48
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Rubin Yalta
1.00
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Rubin Yalta+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Yalta ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rubin Yalta or draw
61%
Rubin Yalta or SKA Rostov
74%
Draw or SKA Rostov
64%

Winning margin

Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
16%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
74%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
38%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
15%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
75%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
41%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
48%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Yalta at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Yalta attack 1.48 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rubin Yalta scores more
36%
level
26%
SKA Rostov scores more
39%

SKA Rostov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin Yalta vs SKA Rostov

Rubin Yalta and SKA Rostov drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Yalta.