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SKA Rostov vs Chayka — Cup 2019

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chayka
Chayka
8/23/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SKA Rostov18%
×Draw19%
Chayka62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
1.17
Chayka
2.29

Chayka creates 96% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.00
Chayka
1.83

allows per match

SKA Rostov
2.75
Chayka
1.33

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
38%
SKA Rostov or Chayka
81%
Draw or Chayka
82%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
7%
Chayka wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
69%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
33%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
11%
Chayka 1+ goals
90%
Chayka 2+ goals
66%
Chayka 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
23%
Chayka (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.00 + Chayka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chayka attack 1.83 + SKA Rostov defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
18%
level
19%
Chayka scores more
62%

Chayka at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: SKA Rostov 2–1 Chayka

SKA Rostov beat Chayka 2-1 in Cup on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.