Chayka 0–0 SKA Rostov: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SKA Rostov

3/11/2023

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chayka46%

×Draw25%

SKA Rostov29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchSKA Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Chayka

1.58

SKA Rostov

1.19

Chayka creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

1.97

creates per match

1.79

0.59

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Chayka

1.97

SKA Rostov

1.79

allows per match

Chayka

0.59

SKA Rostov

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

SKA Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

71%

Chayka or SKA Rostov

75%

Draw or SKA Rostov

54%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

24%

SKA Rostov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

79%

Chayka 2+ goals

47%

Chayka 3+ goals

21%

SKA Rostov 1+ goals

70%

SKA Rostov 2+ goals

33%

SKA Rostov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

62%

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.97 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.58

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Chayka defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chayka scores more

46%

level

25%

SKA Rostov scores more

29%

Chayka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff