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SKA Rostov vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
4/29/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

SKA Rostov65%
×Draw20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Rostov
2.04
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.83

SKA Rostov creates 146% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

SKA Rostov
1.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

SKA Rostov
0.88
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

SKA Rostov+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Rostov ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SKA Rostov or draw
86%
SKA Rostov or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
80%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
35%

Winning margin

SKA Rostov wins by 2+
41%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SKA Rostov 1+ goals
87%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
60%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
56%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
82%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Rostov at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.88 · 58 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Rostov attack 1.67 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.04

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + SKA Rostov defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SKA Rostov scores more
65%
level
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
14%

SKA Rostov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: SKA Rostov 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

SKA Rostov beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.