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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
7/23/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II18%
×Draw19%
SKA Rostov62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.16
SKA Rostov
2.29

SKA Rostov creates 97% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
38%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or SKA Rostov
81%
Draw or SKA Rostov
82%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
7%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
69%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
32%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
11%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
90%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
66%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
23%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
18%
level
19%
SKA Rostov scores more
62%

SKA Rostov at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2–2 SKA Rostov

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II and SKA Rostov drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 1 on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Sultana Bilimkhanova in Groznyi.