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Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
Veles
Veles
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
Big match
52%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
52%25%23%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk52%
×Draw25%
Veles23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.61
Veles
0.97

Ska-khabarovsk creates 66% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.49
Veles
1.00

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.95
Veles
1.73

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
77%
Ska-khabarovsk or Veles
75%
Draw or Veles
48%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
28%
Veles wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
80%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
48%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
22%
Veles 1+ goals
62%
Veles 2+ goals
25%
Veles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
70%
Veles (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Veles away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.49 + Veles defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Veles attack 1.00 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
52%
level
25%
Veles scores more
23%

Ska-khabarovsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Veles
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles — Match Preview

Ska-khabarovsk face Veles on August 15, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ska-khabarovsk host Veles at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.