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Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles — First League 2026

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Veles
Veles
3/20/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk49%
×Draw28%
Veles24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.38
Veles
0.88

Ska-khabarovsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 58 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.42
Veles
0.95

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.80
Veles
1.34

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-khabarovsk or Veles
72%
Draw or Veles
51%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
23%
Veles wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
75%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
40%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
16%
Veles 1+ goals
59%
Veles 2+ goals
22%
Veles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Veles (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 139 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.42 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Veles attack 0.95 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
49%
level
28%
Veles scores more
24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles

Ska-khabarovsk and Veles drew 1-1 in First League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.