Ska-khabarovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Ska-khabarovsk

Preview

16:00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

3/20/2027

First League · Round 24Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

48%

Ska-khabarovsk

model favours

48%28%24%

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk48%

×Draw28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.85

Ska-khabarovsk

1.32

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.85

Ska-khabarovsk creates 55% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 41 away

1.43

creates per match

0.78

0.93

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.78

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.93

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

76%

Ska-khabarovsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl

72%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

52%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

73%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

38%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

15%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

57%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

21%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

66%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.78 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

48%

level

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Ska-khabarovsk

LDLWD

Yaroslavl

DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff