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Ska-khabarovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
V. Bragin 74'
E. Noskov 50'
J. Alcalde 41'
D. Kornyushin 88'
10/5/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk50%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.45
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.90

Ska-khabarovsk creates 61% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 122 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.47

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
77%
Ska-khabarovsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
50%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
25%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
77%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
42%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
50%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
23%

Ska-khabarovsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
K. Aliev← V. Aleynikov
24'
Dmitri Tsypchenko
41'
J. Alcalde
50'
E. Noskov
54'
I. Stefanovich← R. Kul
64'
D. Martovoy← D. Samoilov
67'
Sadyg Bagiev
70'
V. Masternoy← G. Gurban
70'
V. Bragin← D. Tsypchenko
73'
D. Mironov← K. Malyarov
74'
V. Bragin
79'
B. Gurtsiev← J. Alcalde
79'
D. Yanov← J. A. Tur
88'
D. Kornyushin

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskShinnik
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Ska-khabarovsk beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-1 in First League on October 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Alcalde (41'), E. Noskov (50'), V. Bragin (74'), D. Kornyushin (88').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.