Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
D. Samoylov 15'
V. Zinkov 13'
S. Aliev 81'
5/12/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl42%
×Draw28%
Ska-khabarovsk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.30
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 23% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 141 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Ska-khabarovsk
72%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
58%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
19%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
73%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
37%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
14%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
65%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
29%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
58%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
42%
level
28%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
V. Zinkov
15'
D. Samoylov
46'
A. Gongapshev← A. Simonyan
66'
Andrey Nikitin
69'
S. Aliev← J. Charles
69'
N. Miroshnichenko← A. Nikitin
69'
K. Nikitin← A. Savinov
71'
E. Nizamutdinov← I. Andreev
71'
A. Malakhov← D. Samoylov
71'
D. Sukhomlinov← V. Saus
76'
Ben Aziz Isma Zagre
79'
D. Kornyushin← T. Rukas
81'
S. Aliev
89'
Maksim Polyakov
89'
G. Yakushevich← M. Polyakov

Statistics

ShinnikSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Ska-khabarovsk 2-1 in First League on May 12, 2024.

Goals: V. Zinkov (13'), D. Samoylov (15'), S. Aliev (81').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.