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Ska-khabarovsk vs Rodina Moskva — Cup 2019

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
9/24/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk18%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
0.85
Rodina Moskva
1.75

Rodina Moskva creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.83
Rodina Moskva
2.50

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.00
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
41%
Ska-khabarovsk or Rodina Moskva
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
82%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
6%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
57%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
21%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
5%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
83%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
52%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
23%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.83 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Rodina Moskva attack 2.50 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
18%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva scores more
59%

Rodina Moskva at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-0 in Cup on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina in Oryol (Orel).