Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rodina Moskva

5/17/2025

First League · Round 33Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk39%

×Draw29%

Rodina Moskva32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.06

Ska-khabarovsk

1.20

Rodina Moskva

1.06

Ska-khabarovsk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 68 away

1.43

creates per match

1.32

0.81

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.81

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

68%

Ska-khabarovsk or Rodina Moskva

71%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

61%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

17%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

70%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

34%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

12%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

65%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

29%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

55%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

39%

level

29%

Rodina Moskva scores more

32%

Ska-khabarovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff