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Ska-Khabarovsk vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
7/17/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk51%
×Draw28%
FC Armavir21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.34
FC Armavir
0.75

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 79% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.43
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.81
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
79%
Ska-Khabarovsk or FC Armavir
72%
Draw or FC Armavir
49%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
24%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
74%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
39%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
15%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
53%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
17%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
71%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.43 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
51%
level
28%
FC Armavir scores more
21%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-Khabarovsk 3 – 0 FC Armavir

Ska-Khabarovsk beat FC Armavir 3-0 in First League on July 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).