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FC Armavir vs Ska-Khabarovsk — First League 2018

FC Armavir
FC Armavir
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
5/25/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 38Stadion Yunost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FC Armavir40%
×Draw28%
Ska-Khabarovsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Armavir
1.23
Ska-Khabarovsk
1.04

FC Armavir creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 142 away

creates per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Ska-Khabarovsk
1.07

allows per match

FC Armavir
1.00
Ska-Khabarovsk
1.46

finishing

FC Armavir+0.00on par
Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Armavir ↓

Ska-Khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Armavir or draw
69%
FC Armavir or Ska-Khabarovsk
72%
Draw or Ska-Khabarovsk
60%

Winning margin

FC Armavir wins by 2+
18%
Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Armavir 1+ goals
71%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
35%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
13%
Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
65%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
28%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Armavir (draw refunded)
57%
Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Armavir at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Ska-Khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Armavir attack 1.00 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.07 + FC Armavir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Armavir scores more
40%
level
28%
Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
31%

FC Armavir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Armavir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: FC Armavir 2–0 Ska-Khabarovsk

FC Armavir beat Ska-Khabarovsk 2-0 in First League on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Yunost'.