Ska-khabarovsk 2–1 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

4/30/2022

First League · Round 35Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk45%

×Draw27%

Fakel Voronezh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk

1.37

Fakel Voronezh

1.00

Ska-khabarovsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 89 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

0.81

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.81

Fakel Voronezh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

73%

Ska-khabarovsk or Fakel Voronezh

73%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

55%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

21%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

75%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

40%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

16%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

63%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

26%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

62%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

45%

level

27%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

27%

Ska-khabarovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff