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Ska-khabarovsk vs Fakel — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fakel
Fakel
10/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk45%
×Draw27%
Fakel27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.37
Fakel
1.00

Ska-khabarovsk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Fakel
1.20

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Fakel
1.31

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Fakel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Fakel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
73%
Ska-khabarovsk or Fakel
73%
Draw or Fakel
55%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
21%
Fakel wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
75%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
40%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
16%
Fakel 1+ goals
63%
Fakel 2+ goals
26%
Fakel 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
62%
Fakel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Fakel away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Fakel defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fakel attack 1.20 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
45%
level
27%
Fakel scores more
27%

Ska-khabarovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Fakel

Ska-khabarovsk beat Fakel 1-0 in First League on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.