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Ska-khabarovsk vs Enisey — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
Enisey
Enisey
10/24/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
Big match
48%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
48%26%25%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk48%
×Draw26%
Enisey25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.46
Enisey
0.98

Ska-khabarovsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.51
Enisey
1.07

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.89
Enisey
1.42

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
75%
Ska-khabarovsk or Enisey
74%
Draw or Enisey
52%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
24%
Enisey wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
77%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
43%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
18%
Enisey 1+ goals
62%
Enisey 2+ goals
26%
Enisey 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
66%
Enisey (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.42 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.51 + Enisey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Enisey attack 1.07 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
48%
level
26%
Enisey scores more
25%

Ska-khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ska-khabarovsk sit 17, Enisey 6 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk vs Enisey — Match Preview

Ska-khabarovsk face Enisey on October 24, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ska-khabarovsk host Enisey at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.