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Ska-khabarovsk vs Enisey — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Enisey
Enisey
D. Tsypchenko 76'
A. Okladnikov 90'
11/15/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk49%
×Draw27%
Enisey24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.44
Enisey
0.92

Ska-khabarovsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 124 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Enisey
1.02

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Enisey
1.44

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-khabarovsk or Enisey
73%
Draw or Enisey
51%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
24%
Enisey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
76%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
42%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
18%
Enisey 1+ goals
60%
Enisey 2+ goals
23%
Enisey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Enisey (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Enisey defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enisey attack 1.02 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
49%
level
27%
Enisey scores more
24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
E. Noskov← V. Bragin
61'
V. Aleynikov← D. Yanov
61'
S. Glotov← D. Ilyev
67'
R. Ogienko← A. Khashkulov
67'
L. Ratkovic← A. Nadolskiy
76'
D. Tsypchenko
81'
B. Gurtsiev← D. Tsypchenko
86'
R. Emeljanov← K. Aliev
86'
O. Kenfak← A. Mazurin
86'
A. Okladnikov← N. Bogatyrev
90'
A. Okladnikov

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskEnisey
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 1–1 Enisey

Ska-khabarovsk and Enisey drew 1-1 in First League on November 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Tsypchenko (76'), A. Okladnikov (90').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.