Enisey 2–2 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

Enisey

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ska-khabarovsk

A. Lomakin 67'

M. Savelyev 16'

A. Bykov 90+4'

A. Gongapshev 45+1'

9/21/2024

First League · Round 11Central'nyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Enisey47%

×Draw26%

Ska-khabarovsk27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EniseyExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Enisey

1.48

Ska-khabarovsk

1.04

Enisey creates 42% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 141 away

1.49

creates per match

1.06

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Enisey

1.49

Ska-khabarovsk

1.06

allows per match

Enisey

1.02

Ska-khabarovsk

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enisey+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enisey ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Enisey or draw

73%

Enisey or Ska-khabarovsk

74%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

53%

Winning margin

Enisey wins by 2+

24%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Enisey 1+ goals

77%

Enisey 2+ goals

43%

Enisey 3+ goals

19%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

65%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

28%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Enisey (draw refunded)

64%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enisey at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.02 · 122 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.47 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enisey attack 1.49 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.06 + Enisey defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Enisey scores more

47%

level

26%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

27%

Enisey at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Savelyev

36'

M. Laykin← T. Shipunov

45+1'

A. Gongapshev

46'

Y. Bavin← G. Gurban

54'

J. Charles← G. Gongadze

67'

A. Lomakin

74'

N. Miroshnichenko← R. Emelyanov

78'

A. Batyrev← K. Ushatov

78'

A. Okladnikov← M. Savelyev

78'

A. Gilyazetdinov← M. Tikhonov

81'

A. Gagloev← R. Gadzhimuradov

81'

K. Aliev← A. Simonyan

88'

Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet

89'

A. Rukas← A. Mazurin

90+5'

Artem Bykov

90+4'

A. Bykov

Statistics

EniseySka-khabarovsk

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0