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Ska-khabarovsk vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2024

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
Preview
15:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
4/24/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina
48%
Ska-khabarovsk
model favours
48%28%24%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk48%
×Draw28%
Chelyabinsk24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.34
Chelyabinsk
0.85

Ska-khabarovsk creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.45
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.95
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
76%
Ska-khabarovsk or Chelyabinsk
72%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
52%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
23%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
74%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
39%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
15%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
57%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
21%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
67%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.45 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
48%
level
28%
Chelyabinsk scores more
24%

Ska-khabarovsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ska-khabarovsk sit 17, Chelyabinsk 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ska-khabarovsk vs Chelyabinsk — Match Preview

Ska-khabarovsk face Chelyabinsk on April 24, 2027 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ska-khabarovsk host Chelyabinsk at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.