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Ska-khabarovsk vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
9/14/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk49%
×Draw28%
Chelyabinsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.33
Chelyabinsk
0.79

Ska-khabarovsk creates 68% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
78%
Ska-khabarovsk or Chelyabinsk
72%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
51%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
23%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
74%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
38%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
15%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
55%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
19%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
69%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
49%
level
28%
Chelyabinsk scores more
22%

Ska-khabarovsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 1–1 Chelyabinsk

Ska-khabarovsk and Chelyabinsk drew 1-1 in First League on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.