Chelyabinsk vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Chelyabinsk51%
Ska-khabarovsk24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chelyabinsk creates 58% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 47 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chelyabinsk ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches
Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60
Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.91 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Chelyabinsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC SochiSka-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
Arsenal Tula
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FC UFA
FK Sokol Saratov
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
TyumenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Chelyabinsk host Ska-khabarovsk on Monday, 13 July 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the First League 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Chelyabinsk vs Ska-khabarovsk
Chelyabinsk beat Ska-khabarovsk 3-1 in First League on July 13, 2026.
Goals: Aleksey Berdnikov (24'), Mikheil gorelishvili (45+1'), Ramazan Gadzhimuradov (56', 65').
Ska-khabarovsk controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 14.
The match was played at Central Stadium in Chelyabinsk.