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Ska-khabarovsk vs Baltika — First League 2018

Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
I. Petrov 60' (pen)
V. Aleynikov 49'
V. Lazarev 90+2'
A. Dudiev 89'
8/14/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Central'nyj stadion Kazan'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk39%
×Draw28%
Baltika33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
Baltika
1.08

Ska-khabarovsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 108 away

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk
1.43
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk
0.81
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw
67%
Ska-khabarovsk or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
61%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
17%
Baltika wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
70%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
34%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
66%
Baltika 2+ goals
29%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
54%
Baltika (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Baltika attack 1.35 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more
39%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
33%

Ska-khabarovsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Dmitri Starodub
35'
Danila Sukhomlinov
36'
A. Anisimov← D. Sukhomlinov
49'
V. Aleynikov
60'
I. PetrovPenalty
64'
D. Barkov← D. Klenkin
64'
S. Pryakhin← G. Borisenko
69'
S. Aliev← I. Tursunov
84'
I. Muminov← I. Petrov
84'
A. Dudiev← N. Radmanovac
84'
V. Lazarev← M. Kuzmin
89'
A. Dudiev
90+2'
Nikita Miroshnichenko
90+2'
V. Lazarev

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskBaltika
Overview
2Corners9

Match Recap: Ska-khabarovsk vs Baltika

Ska-khabarovsk and Baltika drew 2-2 in First League on August 14, 2022.

Goals: V. Aleynikov (49'), I. Petrov (60' pen), A. Dudiev (89'), V. Lazarev (90+2').

The match was played at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' in Kazan'.