Baltika 2–0 Ska-khabarovsk: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ska-khabarovsk

N. Miroshnichenko 82' (OG)

A. Mokhammad 9'

11/3/2024

First League · Round 17Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Baltika47%

×Draw28%

Ska-khabarovsk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Baltika

1.36

Ska-khabarovsk

0.92

Baltika creates 48% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 142 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

0.76

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Ska-khabarovsk

1.07

allows per match

Baltika

0.76

Ska-khabarovsk

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

75%

Baltika or Ska-khabarovsk

72%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

53%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

22%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

74%

Baltika 2+ goals

39%

Baltika 3+ goals

16%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

60%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

23%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

65%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 107 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Baltika defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baltika scores more

47%

level

28%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

25%

Baltika at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Mokhammad

23'

Amir Mokhammad

32'

R. Khalimbekov← Y. Bavin

46'

V. Saus← A. Mokhammad

60'

J. Charles← G. Gongadze

65'

O. Isaenko← Y. Kovalev

65'

I. Stefanovich← A. Eldarushev

65'

D. Begun← V. Lisakovich

70'

A. Gagloev← R. Gadzhimuradov

70'

A. Gongapshev← K. Aliev

70'

N. Miroshnichenko← N. Pershin

76'

Artem Bykov

80'

Nikolay Poyarkov

82'

N. MiroshnichenkoOwn goal

83'

Alex← I. Petrov

Statistics

BaltikaSka-khabarovsk

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0