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Ska-Khabarovsk vs Baltika — First League 2026

Ska-Khabarovsk
Ska-Khabarovsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
I. Khomukha 80'
A. Shavaev 77' (pen)
10/24/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Ska-Khabarovsk40%
×Draw28%
Baltika31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.23
Baltika
1.05

Ska-Khabarovsk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
1.42
Baltika
1.30

allows per match

Ska-Khabarovsk
0.80
Baltika
1.04

finishing

Ska-Khabarovsk+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-Khabarovsk ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ska-Khabarovsk or draw
69%
Ska-Khabarovsk or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
60%

Winning margin

Ska-Khabarovsk wins by 2+
18%
Baltika wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ska-Khabarovsk 1+ goals
71%
Ska-Khabarovsk 2+ goals
35%
Ska-Khabarovsk 3+ goals
13%
Baltika 1+ goals
65%
Baltika 2+ goals
28%
Baltika 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ska-Khabarovsk (draw refunded)
56%
Baltika (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-Khabarovsk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 142 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-Khabarovsk attack 1.42 + Baltika defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Baltika attack 1.30 + Ska-Khabarovsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ska-Khabarovsk scores more
40%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
31%

Ska-Khabarovsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ska-Khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
A. ShavaevPenalty
80'
I. Khomukha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ska-Khabarovsk 1–1 Baltika

Ska-Khabarovsk and Baltika drew 1-1 in First League on October 24, 2018.

Goals: A. Shavaev (77' pen), I. Khomukha (80').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina (Khabarovsk).