Ska-khabarovsk 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Ska-khabarovsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

N. Giorgobiani 86'

5/20/2024

First League · Round 33Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Ska-khabarovsk45%

×Draw27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ska-khabarovskExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Ska-khabarovsk

1.38

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.02

Ska-khabarovsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 70 away

1.43

creates per match

1.24

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.24

allows per match

Ska-khabarovsk

0.81

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ska-khabarovsk ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ska-khabarovsk or draw

72%

Ska-khabarovsk or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

73%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

55%

Winning margin

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

21%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

75%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

40%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

16%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

64%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

62%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ska-khabarovsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.81 · 140 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.43 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

45%

level

27%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

28%

Ska-khabarovsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ska-khabarovsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Alan Khabalov

40'

D. Shavlokhov← A. Butaev

62'

N. Miroshnichenko← A. Simonyan

62'

J. Charles← A. Gongapshev

71'

Alan Bagaev

80'

S. Aliev← A. Savinov

80'

A. Zaseev← A. Tsaraev

82'

85'

86'

90+1'

Statistics

Ska-khabarovskAlaniya

Discipline

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Ska-khabarovsk 1-0 in First League on May 20, 2024.

Goals: N. Giorgobiani (86').

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Ska-khabarovsk 0–1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz