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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2018

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
N. Giorgobiani 70'
V. Tsarukyan 27'
S. Aliev 63'
9/23/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz46%
×Draw25%
Ska-khabarovsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.52
Ska-khabarovsk
1.16

Alaniya Vladikavkaz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 142 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.57
Ska-khabarovsk
1.07

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Ska-khabarovsk
1.46

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
71%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Ska-khabarovsk
75%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
54%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
23%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
78%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
45%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
20%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
69%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
32%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
61%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.24 · 70 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.46 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.57 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ska-khabarovsk attack 1.07 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
46%
level
25%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
29%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alaniya Vladikavkaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
V. Tsarukyan
46'
A. Khabalov← A. Butaev
46'
S. Aliev← M. Kutovoy
46'
V. Podberezkin← A. Gongapshev
48'
Said Aliev
63'
S. Aliev
68'
A. Zaseev← A. Chochiev
68'
V. Krotov← B. Gurtsiev
70'
N. Giorgobiani
77'
A. Bagaev← S. Kachmazov
77'
K. Nikitin← A. Nikitin
82'
B. Khadartsev← I. Mashukov
84'
J. Charles← A. Savinov
85'
Azamat Zaseev
90+1'
T. Rukas← N. Pokidyshev

Statistics

AlaniyaSka-khabarovsk
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2–1 Ska-khabarovsk

Alaniya Vladikavkaz beat Ska-khabarovsk 2-1 in First League on September 23, 2023.

Goals: V. Tsarukyan (27'), S. Aliev (63'), N. Giorgobiani (70').

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.