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SKA Khabarovsk II vs Kvant — Second League - Group 3 2020

SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kvant
Kvant
4/12/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

SKA Khabarovsk II55%
×Draw22%
Kvant23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.90
Kvant
1.15

SKA Khabarovsk II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 93 away

creates per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.54
Kvant
0.88

allows per match

SKA Khabarovsk II
1.41
Kvant
2.26

finishing

SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par
Kvant+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKA Khabarovsk II ↓

Kvant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SKA Khabarovsk II or draw
77%
SKA Khabarovsk II or Kvant
78%
Draw or Kvant
45%

Winning margin

SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
31%
Kvant wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
85%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
56%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
29%
Kvant 1+ goals
68%
Kvant 2+ goals
32%
Kvant 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
71%
Kvant (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKA Khabarovsk II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 79 matches

Kvant away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.54 + Kvant defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kvant attack 0.88 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
55%
level
22%
Kvant scores more
23%

SKA Khabarovsk II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SKA Khabarovsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKA Khabarovsk II vs Kvant

SKA Khabarovsk II beat Kvant 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.