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Kvant vs SKA Khabarovsk II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kvant
Kvant
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
7/7/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Kvant40%
×Draw25%
SKA Khabarovsk II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kvant
1.48
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kvant
1.01
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.13

allows per match

Kvant
1.63
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.96

finishing

Kvant+0.00on par
SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvant ↓

SKA Khabarovsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kvant or draw
65%
Kvant or SKA Khabarovsk II
75%
Draw or SKA Khabarovsk II
60%

Winning margin

Kvant wins by 2+
19%
SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kvant 1+ goals
77%
Kvant 2+ goals
43%
Kvant 3+ goals
19%
SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
75%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
40%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kvant (draw refunded)
53%
SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvant at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.63 · 89 matches

SKA Khabarovsk II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvant attack 1.01 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.13 + Kvant defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kvant scores more
40%
level
25%
SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
35%

Kvant at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kvant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kvant vs SKA Khabarovsk II

Kvant beat SKA Khabarovsk II 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Obninsk.