Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SK Vorwarts Steyr vs LASK Juniors — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
LASK Juniors
LASK Juniors
9/6/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 6LIWEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr30%
×Draw24%
LASK Juniors46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.33
LASK Juniors
1.70

LASK Juniors creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
LASK Juniors
2.13

allows per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.27
LASK Juniors
1.60

finishing

SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par
LASK Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Vorwarts Steyr ↓

LASK Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SK Vorwarts Steyr or draw
54%
SK Vorwarts Steyr or LASK Juniors
76%
Draw or LASK Juniors
70%

Winning margin

SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
13%
LASK Juniors wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
74%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
38%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
15%
LASK Juniors 1+ goals
82%
LASK Juniors 2+ goals
51%
LASK Juniors 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
39%
LASK Juniors (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Vorwarts Steyr at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

LASK Juniors away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 1.07 + LASK Juniors defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

LASK Juniors attack 2.13 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
30%
level
24%
LASK Juniors scores more
46%

LASK Juniors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LASK Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: SK Vorwarts Steyr 2–2 LASK Juniors

SK Vorwarts Steyr and LASK Juniors drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at LIWEST Arena in Steyr.