SK Vorwarts Steyr 0–1 Gleisdorf 09: Result & Stats

SK Vorwarts Steyr

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gleisdorf 09

9/24/2024

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 7LIWEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr35%

×Draw26%

Gleisdorf 0939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SK Vorwarts SteyrExpected goals in this matchGleisdorf 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

SK Vorwarts Steyr

1.33

Gleisdorf 09

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 105 away

1.07

creates per match

1.54

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr

1.07

Gleisdorf 09

1.54

allows per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr

1.27

Gleisdorf 09

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Vorwarts Steyr ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SK Vorwarts Steyr or draw

61%

SK Vorwarts Steyr or Gleisdorf 09

74%

Draw or Gleisdorf 09

65%

Winning margin

SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+

16%

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals

74%

SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals

38%

SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals

15%

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

76%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

41%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)

48%

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Vorwarts Steyr at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 1.07 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more

35%

level

26%

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

39%

Gleisdorf 09 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff