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Gleisdorf 09 vs SK Vorwarts Steyr — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gleisdorf 09
Gleisdorf 09
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4/11/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gleisdorf 0947%
×Draw23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gleisdorf 09
1.75
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.35

Gleisdorf 09 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.69
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.97

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09
1.73
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par
SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

SK Vorwarts Steyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw
70%
Gleisdorf 09 or SK Vorwarts Steyr
77%
Draw or SK Vorwarts Steyr
53%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+
25%
SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals
83%
Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals
52%
Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals
25%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
74%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
39%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)
61%
SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 0.97 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more
47%
level
23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
30%

Gleisdorf 09 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gleisdorf 09 2–1 SK Vorwarts Steyr

Gleisdorf 09 beat SK Vorwarts Steyr 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf in Gleisdorf.