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SK Vorwarts Steyr vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
6/6/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 30LIWEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr37%
×Draw25%
ASK Klagenfurt37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.40
ASK Klagenfurt
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.27
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Vorwarts Steyr ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SK Vorwarts Steyr or draw
63%
SK Vorwarts Steyr or ASK Klagenfurt
75%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
63%

Winning margin

SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
17%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
75%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
41%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
17%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
75%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
41%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
50%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Vorwarts Steyr at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 1.07 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
37%
level
25%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
37%

SK Vorwarts Steyr at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SK Vorwarts Steyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SK Vorwarts Steyr vs ASK Klagenfurt

ASK Klagenfurt beat SK Vorwarts Steyr 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at LIWEST Arena in Steyr.