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ASK Klagenfurt vs SK Vorwarts Steyr — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SK Vorwarts Steyr
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4/21/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 23ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt52%
×Draw23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
1.88
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.27

ASK Klagenfurt creates 48% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.95
SK Vorwarts Steyr
0.97

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.57
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
SK Vorwarts Steyr+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

SK Vorwarts Steyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
74%
ASK Klagenfurt or SK Vorwarts Steyr
77%
Draw or SK Vorwarts Steyr
48%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
29%
SK Vorwarts Steyr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
85%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
56%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
29%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 1+ goals
72%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 2+ goals
36%
SK Vorwarts Steyr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
67%
SK Vorwarts Steyr (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

SK Vorwarts Steyr away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + SK Vorwarts Steyr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.88

SK Vorwarts Steyr attack 0.97 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
52%
level
23%
SK Vorwarts Steyr scores more
26%

ASK Klagenfurt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASK Klagenfurt vs SK Vorwarts Steyr

ASK Klagenfurt beat SK Vorwarts Steyr 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.