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SK Poltava vs Dinaz Vyshhorod — Persha Liga 2019

SK Poltava
SK Poltava
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
5/26/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SK Poltava52%
×Draw24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SK Poltava
1.71
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.10

SK Poltava creates 55% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

SK Poltava
1.54
Dinaz Vyshhorod
0.97

allows per match

SK Poltava
1.24
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.89

finishing

SK Poltava+0.00on par
Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SK Poltava ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SK Poltava or draw
76%
SK Poltava or Dinaz Vyshhorod
76%
Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod
48%

Winning margin

SK Poltava wins by 2+
28%
Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SK Poltava 1+ goals
82%
SK Poltava 2+ goals
51%
SK Poltava 3+ goals
24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
67%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
30%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SK Poltava (draw refunded)
68%
Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SK Poltava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SK Poltava attack 1.54 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 0.97 + SK Poltava defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SK Poltava scores more
52%
level
24%
Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
24%

SK Poltava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SK Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SK Poltava vs Dinaz Vyshhorod

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat SK Poltava 2-1 in Persha Liga on May 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Poltava.